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Procházka brings far more experience, a higher ranking, and major finishing power (28 KO wins), but is 5-3 in his last eight listed UFC fights and has a low striking-defense rate. Stirling’s takedown accuracy is missing, as are manual skill scores and strike-target distributions, limiting confidence.","2026-10-18T22:20:42.273770Z","v20261007-input-v3",{},[92,93,103],{"id":79,"model_name":80,"model_icon_url":81,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":83,"fighter_b_win_pct":84,"confidence":85,"analysis_zh":86,"analysis_en":87,"data_at":88,"prompt_version":89},{"id":94,"model_name":95,"model_icon_url":96,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":97,"fighter_b_win_pct":98,"confidence":99,"analysis_zh":100,"analysis_en":101,"data_at":102,"prompt_version":89},456,"Claude","https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fbranding\u002Fai-models\u002Fclaude.svg",42,58,0.57,"斯特林11-0，UFC 6连胜，近三场均KO\u002FTKO（含布拉霍维奇）。数据上，他的有效打击量为6.47\u002F分，高于普罗哈兹卡的5.61；打击防守58%对45%；每分钟被击中2.56次，远低于对手的5.67。普罗哈兹卡排名第2，经验和终结力更强：28次KO，击倒率0.81\u002F15分。但他近8场有3次KO失利，最近一次在4月首回合被乌尔伯格KO，抗击打与防守存疑。斯特林尚未与顶级重炮手交手，对手质量有不确定性。另有两处数据缺失：斯特林的抱摔成功率，以及双方的后台技能评分。因此倾向斯特林，把握中等。","Stirling is 11-0 and 6-0 in the UFC, with three straight KO\u002FTKOs including Blachowicz. He outlands Prochazka (6.47 vs 5.61 per min), defends better (58% vs 45%) and absorbs far less (2.56 vs 5.67 per min). Prochazka, ranked #2, brings elite experience and power: 28 KOs and 0.81 knockdowns per 15 min. However, he has 3 KO losses in his last 8, most recently a first-round KO to Ulberg in April. Stirling's opposition quality is still unproven against top-tier power. Stirling's takedown accuracy and both fighters' manual skill scores are missing. Lean Stirling with moderate confidence.","2026-10-18T22:20:33.740652Z",{"id":104,"model_name":105,"model_icon_url":106,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":107,"fighter_b_win_pct":108,"confidence":109,"analysis_zh":110,"analysis_en":111,"data_at":112,"prompt_version":89},455,"DeepSeek","https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002F70\u002F707b1d66db538a9f4cf473479682cc8acb4f934a9f0a360cf1e3eb65914eead2.jpg",44,56,0.62,"斯特林11胜0负，UFC 6战全胜，近期KO布拉霍维奇、库特拉巴。打击量6.47\u002F分钟（95百分位），打击防守58%（77百分位），仅吸收2.56\u002F分钟。普罗哈兹卡重拳威胁大（28次KO，击倒威胁84百分位），但防守仅45%（32百分位），吸收5.67\u002F分钟，近4场3次被KO。33岁损耗大，需早期终结；若进入中后段，斯特林的年轻、输出与防守优势明显。排名普罗哈兹卡第2、斯特林第5，但状态与攻防数据倾向斯特林。","Stirling is 11-0 (6-0 UFC), recently KO'd Błachowicz and Cutelaba. He lands 6.47 strikes\u002Fmin (95th pct), 58% striking defense (77th pct), absorbs only 2.56\u002Fmin. Procházka has power (28 KO wins, 84th pct knockdown threat) but weak defense (45%, 32nd pct), absorbs 5.67\u002Fmin, and was KO'd in 3 of last 4 losses. At 33 with heavy mileage, Procházka needs an early finish; Stirling's youth, volume, and defense favor him over five rounds. Rankings (#2 vs #5) noted, but form and metrics lean Stirling.","2026-10-18T22:20:22.041291Z",{"fighter_a":46,"fighter_b":46,"total":46,"fighter_a_pct":46,"fighter_b_pct":46},{"pickable":13,"locked_reason":115,"odds_updated_at":7,"source":116},"暂缺完整双边市场数据","ufc.com",{"id":118,"bout_order":119,"weight_class":120,"weight_class_zh":121,"is_main_event":13,"is_title_fight":13,"fighter_a":122,"fighter_b":137,"fighter_a_name":125,"fighter_b_name":140,"result":75,"bout_status":76,"official_fight_id":152,"result_source":7,"result_updated_at":7,"method":7,"method_zh":7,"end_round":7,"end_time":7,"odds_a":7,"odds_b":7,"favor_a_pct":7,"favor_b_pct":7,"market_odds":7,"prediction":153,"predictions":163,"pick_distribution":179,"my_pick":7,"my_pick_detail":7,"prediction_market":180},62779,1,"Featherweight","羽量级",{"id":123,"slug":124,"name_en":125,"name_zh":126,"nickname":127,"weight_class":120,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":128,"country":129,"country_zh":130,"country_code":131,"is_chinese":13,"status":56,"ufc_profile_status":132,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":60,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":134,"target":136},3705,"aljamain-sterling","Aljamain Sterling","阿尔贾梅因·斯特林","Funk Master","26-5-0","United States","美国","US",{"value":56,"raw":58,"observed_at":133,"fresh":8},"2026-10-22T05:12:42.134991Z",{"url":135,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":126,"alt_en":125},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002Fa2\u002Fa29af104186a81efb29595bfd29c1395b5de2af873eb2e724b0bc847e6f6a979.jpg",{"kind":63,"ref":124,"fight_id":7},{"id":138,"slug":139,"name_en":140,"name_zh":141,"nickname":142,"weight_class":120,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":143,"country":144,"country_zh":145,"country_code":146,"is_chinese":13,"status":56,"ufc_profile_status":147,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":60,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":149,"target":151},3958,"kevin-vallejos","Kevin Vallejos","凯文·瓦列霍斯","El Chino","17-1-0","Argentina","阿根廷","AR",{"value":56,"raw":58,"observed_at":148,"fresh":8},"2026-10-22T05:16:34.151504Z",{"url":150,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":141,"alt_en":140},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002Ff4\u002Ff49215c30871c0ecc542bc11f0eb0c63d86bec7946756cb348c155fa93dc7cd5.jpg",{"kind":63,"ref":139,"fight_id":7},"13198",{"id":154,"model_name":80,"model_icon_url":81,"predicted_winner":155,"fighter_a_win_pct":156,"fighter_b_win_pct":157,"confidence":158,"analysis_zh":159,"analysis_en":160,"data_at":161,"prompt_version":89,"method_dist":162,"version":89,"sample_size":7,"uncertainty":7},401,"fighter_a",54,46,0.42,"斯特林近期8场UFC为6胜2负，排名第4，拥有更长的高水平比赛履历；其摔跤与降服经验可能限制瓦列霍斯的站立进攻，且身高相同、臂展占优。但斯特林抱摔成功率仅12.1%，防摔率45%，而瓦列霍斯年轻、近4场全胜，击倒威胁和有效打击量突出。瓦列霍斯UFC样本较少，抱摔数据也不完整；综合优势有限，判断把握偏低。","Sterling has the deeper UFC résumé (6-2 in his last eight) and the stronger ranking, with grappling and submission experience that could disrupt Vallejos’s striking. He also has a reach advantage at the same listed height. However, Sterling’s takedown accuracy is only 12.1% and his takedown defense is 45%; Vallejos is younger, 4-0 in the supplied UFC sample, and shows higher striking volume and knockdown threat. Vallejos’s UFC sample is short and some takedown data are missing, so the edge is narrow and confidence is limited.","2026-10-08T11:35:15.798145Z",{},[164,165,171],{"id":154,"model_name":80,"model_icon_url":81,"predicted_winner":155,"fighter_a_win_pct":156,"fighter_b_win_pct":157,"confidence":158,"analysis_zh":159,"analysis_en":160,"data_at":161,"prompt_version":89},{"id":166,"model_name":95,"model_icon_url":96,"predicted_winner":155,"fighter_a_win_pct":84,"fighter_b_win_pct":83,"confidence":167,"analysis_zh":168,"analysis_en":169,"data_at":170,"prompt_version":89},400,0.54,"斯特林（排名第4）战绩26-5，有8场降服胜，降服威胁0.64\u002F15分钟，地面打击占18%。他近8场UFC为6胜2负，近两场均在5回合比赛中击败扎拉尔和奥尔特加，显示出强大的控制力和耐力。他每分钟仅被击中2.15次，打击防守率59%，命中率52.6%，均优于对手。瓦列霍斯（排名第9）24岁，战绩17-1，UFC 4战全胜，其中3场KO。他击倒率高达1.65\u002F15分钟，有效打击量6.12\u002F分钟，主要威胁是站立重拳。但他每分钟被击中4.41次，防守存在漏洞。他85%的防摔率样本有限，且缺少抱摔成功率数据，地面防守未经顶级缠斗手检验。斯特林的主要风险有三：年龄37岁；防摔率仅45%；抱摔成功率仅12.1%，可能难以将对手带到地面；且曾被奥马利KO。因此本场判断为小幅倾向斯特林，以纠缠控制和点数取胜，但瓦列霍斯有明显的爆冷KO可能。后台技能评分缺失，把握度相应降低。","Sterling (#4, 26-5) brings elite grappling: 8 submission wins and 0.64 sub attempts per 15 minutes. He is 6-2 in his last 8 UFC fights, including 5-round decisions over Zalal and Ortega. He also has better defensive and accuracy numbers: 2.15 strikes absorbed per minute, 59% striking defense and 52.6% accuracy. Vallejos (#9, 24, 17-1) is 4-0 in the UFC with 3 KOs. His knockdown rate (1.65\u002F15) and volume (6.12\u002Fmin) are dangerous. However, he absorbs 4.41 strikes per minute. His 85% takedown defense rests on a small sample, and his takedown accuracy is missing. Risks for Sterling: age 37, 45% takedown defense, 12.1% takedown accuracy, and a prior KO loss to O'Malley. Slight lean to Sterling via control and decision, with real upset-KO risk. Confidence is reduced because manual skill scores are absent.","2026-10-08T11:34:40.299952Z",{"id":172,"model_name":105,"model_icon_url":106,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":173,"fighter_b_win_pct":174,"confidence":175,"analysis_zh":176,"analysis_en":177,"data_at":178,"prompt_version":89},253,38,62,0.66,"综合白名单数据，瓦列霍斯在站立端威胁更突出：有效打击量6.12\u002F分钟（93.7百分位）、击倒威胁1.65\u002F15分钟（96.5百分位），13次KO且近期连续KO埃米特、奇卡泽；其防摔率85.0%，可大幅限制斯特林的核心武器。斯特林排名第4、经验与降服威胁（0.64\u002F15分钟）更好，打击命中率52.6%略优，但他抱摔成功率仅12.1%，面对高防摔很难稳定进入地面；37岁对24岁，近期两负包括被KO。若斯特林能持续缠斗并降服仍有机会，但其低抱摔转化与瓦列霍斯的爆发力使后者更可能获胜。瓦列霍斯抱摔成功率缺失、雷达部分缺失，因此把握不拉满。","Using only the provided facts, Vallejos has the clearer offensive edge: 6.12 significant strikes\u002Fmin (93.7th percentile), 1.65 knockdowns\u002F15 min (96.5th), 13 KO wins, and recent KOs of Emmett and Chikadze. His 85.0% takedown defense directly challenges Sterling's main route. Sterling has the higher rank (4), more experience, better submission threat (0.64\u002F15 min), and slightly better striking accuracy (52.6% vs 48.4%). However, his 12.1% takedown accuracy makes grounding Vallejos unreliable, and at 37 vs 24 he may struggle with Vallejos' speed and power. Sterling can still win by prolonged grappling or submission if he lands takedowns, but Vallejos' striking volume, knockdown threat, and takedown defense make him the pick. Confidence is limited because Vallejos' takedown accuracy is missing and his radar is partial.","2026-10-08T11:32:50.181208Z",{"fighter_a":46,"fighter_b":46,"total":46,"fighter_a_pct":46,"fighter_b_pct":46},{"pickable":13,"locked_reason":115,"odds_updated_at":7,"source":116},{"id":182,"bout_order":183,"weight_class":184,"weight_class_zh":185,"is_main_event":13,"is_title_fight":13,"fighter_a":186,"fighter_b":198,"fighter_a_name":189,"fighter_b_name":201,"result":75,"bout_status":76,"official_fight_id":210,"result_source":7,"result_updated_at":7,"method":7,"method_zh":7,"end_round":7,"end_time":7,"odds_a":7,"odds_b":7,"favor_a_pct":7,"favor_b_pct":7,"market_odds":7,"prediction":211,"predictions":220,"pick_distribution":237,"my_pick":7,"my_pick_detail":7,"prediction_market":238},62780,2,"Lightweight","轻量级",{"id":187,"slug":188,"name_en":189,"name_zh":190,"nickname":191,"weight_class":184,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":192,"country":68,"country_zh":69,"country_code":70,"is_chinese":13,"status":56,"ufc_profile_status":193,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":60,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":195,"target":197},1660,"dan-hooker","Dan Hooker","丹·胡克","The Hangman","24-15-0",{"value":56,"raw":58,"observed_at":194,"fresh":8},"2026-10-22T05:10:06.062197Z",{"url":196,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":190,"alt_en":189},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002Fa2\u002Fa2f670336f8b8bc0d437bbd28ed63b0aaaafe9f857ae375b35a42745dad0b073.jpg",{"kind":63,"ref":188,"fight_id":7},{"id":199,"slug":200,"name_en":201,"name_zh":202,"nickname":203,"weight_class":184,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":204,"country":129,"country_zh":130,"country_code":131,"is_chinese":13,"status":56,"ufc_profile_status":205,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":60,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":207,"target":209},2834,"brian-ortega","Brian Ortega","布莱恩·奥尔特加","T-City","16-5-0",{"value":56,"raw":58,"observed_at":206,"fresh":8},"2026-10-22T05:12:41.933957Z",{"url":208,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":202,"alt_en":201},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002F37\u002F37072024913362e09e7ac6cc0ac2133f2d63a26af8954dd7a5a71a8febdcdee8.jpg",{"kind":63,"ref":200,"fight_id":7},"13199",{"id":212,"model_name":80,"model_icon_url":81,"predicted_winner":155,"fighter_a_win_pct":213,"fighter_b_win_pct":214,"confidence":215,"analysis_zh":216,"analysis_en":217,"data_at":218,"prompt_version":89,"method_dist":219,"version":89,"sample_size":7,"uncertainty":7},403,67,33,0.64,"胡克的身高与臂展优势明显，生涯有效打击量、命中率和击倒威胁也更高；奥尔特加的降服胜场和降服威胁构成主要危险，但其抱摔成功率仅2.1%（48次仅成功1次），较难稳定把比赛带入地面。两人所列最近8战均为3胜5负，胡克近期连续失利是风险。奥尔特加官方排名属于羽量级，且后台技能评分缺失，故判断把握有限。","Hooker has clear height and reach advantages, along with higher striking volume, accuracy, and knockdown threat. Ortega’s submission record and threat are his main path, but his takedown accuracy is only 2.1% (1 of 48), making reliable grappling entries uncertain. Both are 3–5 across the listed last eight UFC fights, while Hooker’s recent losing streak is a concern. Ortega’s listed official rank is at featherweight, and manual skill scores are absent, limiting confidence.","2026-10-08T11:35:52.133143Z",{},[221,222,230],{"id":212,"model_name":80,"model_icon_url":81,"predicted_winner":155,"fighter_a_win_pct":213,"fighter_b_win_pct":214,"confidence":215,"analysis_zh":216,"analysis_en":217,"data_at":218,"prompt_version":89},{"id":223,"model_name":95,"model_icon_url":96,"predicted_winner":155,"fighter_a_win_pct":224,"fighter_b_win_pct":225,"confidence":226,"analysis_zh":227,"analysis_en":228,"data_at":229,"prompt_version":89},402,59,41,0.55,"倾向胡克，但两人都处于下滑期，把握有限。胡克是轻量级原生选手，身高与臂展明显占优(190.5cm对175.3cm)。他的打击量更高(4.82对3.84\u002F分钟)，命中率也更高(48.6%对37.3%)。防摔率77%，而奥尔特加UFC抱摔仅48次成功1次，很难把比赛带入其擅长的降服领域。奥尔特加场均吸收6.38次有效打击，在站立对攻中处于劣势。风险方面：胡克已三连败，其中两场被KO，抗击打能力明显下降。奥尔特加降服威胁更高(0.93\u002F15分钟)，也有击倒能力，若胡克被击伤后进入地面，存在被降服的可能。奥尔特加还从羽量级升级(官方排名为羽量级第13)，并已两连败，距上一场比赛约15个月。后台技能评分缺失，因此适当降低了置信度。","Slight lean to Hooker, but both men are in decline, so confidence is limited. Hooker is a natural lightweight with clear height and reach advantages (190.5cm vs 175.3cm). He out-lands Ortega in volume (4.82 vs 3.84 per minute) and accuracy (48.6% vs 37.3%). His 77% takedown defense matters because Ortega has landed only 1 of 48 UFC takedown attempts, which limits Ortega's path to his submission game. Ortega also absorbs 6.38 significant strikes per minute, a poor sign in a standing exchange. The risks favor Ortega in two ways. Hooker has lost three straight, two by KO, so his durability is a real concern. Ortega carries the higher submission threat (0.93 per 15 min) and some knockdown power, so a hurt Hooker on the mat could be finished. Ortega is also moving up from featherweight (ranked #13 there), is on a two-fight skid and has been out about 15 months. Manual skill scores are missing, so confidence is reduced.","2026-10-08T11:35:31.883119Z",{"id":231,"model_name":105,"model_icon_url":106,"predicted_winner":155,"fighter_a_win_pct":232,"fighter_b_win_pct":233,"confidence":175,"analysis_zh":234,"analysis_en":235,"data_at":236,"prompt_version":89},254,64,36,"胡克在体型、臂展和站立输出上占优：有效打击量4.82\u002F分钟、命中率48.6%、击倒威胁83.4百分位，均高于奥尔特加；奥尔特加打击命中率仅37.3%，且被吸收6.38\u002F分钟，防摔率55%。奥尔特加最大武器是降服威胁（0.93\u002F15分钟，76.9百分位），但其抱摔成功率仅2.1%（1\u002F48），面对胡克77%防摔率难以稳定进入地面。胡克近期三连败且两次被终结，状态与抗击打存疑；奥尔特加近8场同样3-5，且站立端持续吃亏。综合判断胡克更可能以站立压制或KO取胜，但若被拖入地面则风险上升。","Hook holds advantages in size, reach and striking output: 4.82 significant strikes landed\u002Fmin, 48.6% accuracy and 83.4 percentile knockdown threat, all above Ortega. Ortega lands only 37.3% and absorbs 6.38 strikes\u002Fmin, with 55% takedown defense. Ortega's main weapon is submission threat (0.93\u002F15 min, 76.9 percentile), but his takedown accuracy is only 2.1% (1\u002F48), making it hard to consistently ground Hook, who has 77% takedown defense. Hook is on a three-fight skid with two recent finishes, raising durability concerns; Ortega is also 3-5 in his last eight and has struggled on the feet. Overall, Hook is more likely to win by standing pressure or KO, though his risk rises if the fight hits the mat.","2026-10-08T11:35:23.100473Z",{"fighter_a":46,"fighter_b":46,"total":46,"fighter_a_pct":46,"fighter_b_pct":46},{"pickable":13,"locked_reason":115,"odds_updated_at":7,"source":116},{"id":240,"bout_order":241,"weight_class":242,"weight_class_zh":243,"is_main_event":13,"is_title_fight":13,"fighter_a":244,"fighter_b":256,"fighter_a_name":247,"fighter_b_name":259,"result":75,"bout_status":76,"official_fight_id":270,"result_source":7,"result_updated_at":7,"method":7,"method_zh":7,"end_round":7,"end_time":7,"odds_a":7,"odds_b":7,"favor_a_pct":7,"favor_b_pct":7,"market_odds":7,"prediction":271,"predictions":280,"pick_distribution":297,"my_pick":7,"my_pick_detail":7,"prediction_market":298},62773,3,"Middleweight","中量级",{"id":245,"slug":246,"name_en":247,"name_zh":248,"nickname":249,"weight_class":242,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":250,"country":129,"country_zh":130,"country_code":131,"is_chinese":13,"status":56,"ufc_profile_status":251,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":60,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":253,"target":255},580,"jared-cannonier","Jared Cannonier","贾里德·坎农尼尔","The Killa Gorilla","18-10-0",{"value":56,"raw":58,"observed_at":252,"fresh":8},"2026-10-22T05:13:00.470952Z",{"url":254,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":248,"alt_en":247},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002Ffb\u002Ffb2b0827026eee036c12713092bb4225bc0d6f5c74946be4096ad98571e6e821.jpg",{"kind":63,"ref":246,"fight_id":7},{"id":257,"slug":258,"name_en":259,"name_zh":260,"nickname":7,"weight_class":242,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":261,"country":262,"country_zh":263,"country_code":264,"is_chinese":13,"status":56,"ufc_profile_status":265,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":60,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":267,"target":269},92,"ikram-aliskerov","Ikram Aliskerov","伊克拉姆·阿利斯克罗夫","18-2-0","Russia","俄罗斯","RU",{"value":56,"raw":58,"observed_at":266,"fresh":8},"2026-10-22T05:15:32.204775Z",{"url":268,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":260,"alt_en":259},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002F7f\u002F7f631aebec9bc1daacc1ad3e19869b3dcc84b0ee275a9c589eb237fe0c0532ba.jpg",{"kind":63,"ref":258,"fight_id":7},"13192",{"id":272,"model_name":80,"model_icon_url":81,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":273,"fighter_b_win_pct":274,"confidence":275,"analysis_zh":276,"analysis_en":277,"data_at":278,"prompt_version":89,"method_dist":279,"version":89,"sample_size":7,"uncertainty":7},405,22,78,0.78,"阿利斯克罗夫更年轻，生涯战绩18胜2负，所列6场UFC比赛取得5胜1负；有效打击命中率、输出及击倒率更高，且摔跤量和降服威胁提供额外获胜路径。坎农尼尔有更长的UFC数据积累、较好的打击防守和略长臂展，但42岁且近8场3胜5负。阿利斯克罗夫的打击防守偏低，样本较少，抱摔成功率缺失，故仍保留一定不确定性。","Aliskerov is younger, owns an 18-2 career record, and went 5-1 across his six listed UFC bouts. His higher striking accuracy, output, and knockdown rate, plus strong takedown volume and submission threat, give him more routes to win. Cannonier has a larger UFC data sample, better striking defense, and a slight reach edge, but is 42 and 3-5 in his last eight. Aliskerov's low striking defense, smaller sample, and missing takedown accuracy temper confidence.","2026-10-08T11:36:57.270147Z",{},[281,282,289],{"id":272,"model_name":80,"model_icon_url":81,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":273,"fighter_b_win_pct":274,"confidence":275,"analysis_zh":276,"analysis_en":277,"data_at":278,"prompt_version":89},{"id":283,"model_name":95,"model_icon_url":96,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":284,"fighter_b_win_pct":285,"confidence":175,"analysis_zh":286,"analysis_en":287,"data_at":288,"prompt_version":89},404,31,69,"阿利斯克罗夫（B）更年轻（33岁对42岁），近期UFC战绩5胜1负，唯一失利是首回合被惠特克KO，最近两场均以判定取胜。坎农尼尔（A）近8场3胜5负，最近两场连续判定落败，年龄下滑风险明显。数据上B每分钟有效打击5.56、命中率60.6%、每15分钟击倒1.04，均高于A（4.25、49.4%、0.36）。B每15分钟抱摔3.82，A防摔仅65%，B可借摔跤与降服（生涯5次降服）控制比赛。A的优势在于打击防守（56%对45%）、略长臂展、11次KO战绩和五回合经验，B防守偏弱，存在被反击KO的可能。B缺少抱摔成功率和抱摔成功总数，且UFC样本较小，平均比赛时长仅6分10秒，后段体能缺乏验证，因此适度降低把握。","Aliskerov (B) is younger (33 vs 42) and is 5-1 in his recent UFC fights. His only loss was a first-round KO against Whittaker, and he won his last two by decision. Cannonier (A) is 3-5 over his last eight and has dropped two straight decisions, which points to age-related decline. B lands more (5.56 vs 4.25 significant strikes per minute), more accurately (60.6% vs 49.4%) and with far more knockdown power (1.04 vs 0.36 per 15 min). He also averages 3.82 takedowns per 15 min against A's 65% takedown defense, and he has five submission wins. A's edges are better striking defense (56% vs 45%), slightly longer reach, 11 KO wins and five-round experience, and B's porous defense leaves a counter-KO path. Confidence is reduced because B's takedown accuracy and takedowns landed are missing, his UFC sample is small, and his 6:10 average fight time leaves late-round cardio unproven.","2026-10-08T11:36:21.073459Z",{"id":290,"model_name":105,"model_icon_url":106,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":291,"fighter_b_win_pct":292,"confidence":293,"analysis_zh":294,"analysis_en":295,"data_at":296,"prompt_version":89},247,32,68,0.7,"阿利斯克罗夫（18-2，33岁）近6场5胜1负，打击量（5.56 vs 4.25次\u002F分）和命中率（60.6% vs 49.4%）均占优，且抱摔量高达3.82次\u002F15分钟，降服威胁0.7次\u002F15分钟。坎农尼尔（18-10，42岁）近8场3胜5负，依赖臂展和重拳，但抱摔成功率仅3%。阿利斯克罗夫的年龄、节奏和地面优势明显；坎农尼尔56%的打击防守和KO能力尚存机会。阿利斯克罗夫抱摔成功率缺失带来些许不确定性。预测：阿利斯克罗夫胜。","Aliskerov (18-2) is 5-1 in his last 6, with higher striking volume (5.56 vs 4.25\u002Fmin) and accuracy (60.6% vs 49.4%), plus strong takedown (3.82\u002F15min) and submission threat. Cannonier (18-10, age 42) is 3-5 in his last 8, relies on reach and power but has 3% takedown accuracy. Aliskerov's youth, pace, and grappling should control the fight; Cannonier's 56% striking defense and KO power give him a chance. Aliskerov's missing takedown accuracy is a minor uncertainty. Prediction: Aliskerov.","2026-10-08T11:36:00.612452Z",{"fighter_a":46,"fighter_b":46,"total":46,"fighter_a_pct":46,"fighter_b_pct":46},{"pickable":13,"locked_reason":115,"odds_updated_at":7,"source":116},{"id":300,"bout_order":301,"weight_class":302,"weight_class_zh":303,"is_main_event":13,"is_title_fight":13,"fighter_a":304,"fighter_b":315,"fighter_a_name":307,"fighter_b_name":318,"result":75,"bout_status":76,"official_fight_id":330,"result_source":7,"result_updated_at":7,"method":7,"method_zh":7,"end_round":7,"end_time":7,"odds_a":7,"odds_b":7,"favor_a_pct":7,"favor_b_pct":7,"market_odds":7,"prediction":331,"predictions":337,"pick_distribution":352,"my_pick":7,"my_pick_detail":7,"prediction_market":353},62781,4,"Heavyweight","重量级",{"id":305,"slug":306,"name_en":307,"name_zh":308,"nickname":7,"weight_class":302,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":309,"country":262,"country_zh":263,"country_code":264,"is_chinese":13,"status":56,"ufc_profile_status":310,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":60,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":312,"target":314},1309,"shamil-gaziev","Shamil Gaziev","沙米尔·加济耶夫","15-3-0",{"value":56,"raw":58,"observed_at":311,"fresh":8},"2026-10-22T05:10:10.112310Z",{"url":313,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":308,"alt_en":307},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002F70\u002F70cfac08dea9b731997093c8499d6296c224c9afa14c2e54cd3f339ae56b86a6.jpg",{"kind":63,"ref":306,"fight_id":7},{"id":316,"slug":317,"name_en":318,"name_zh":319,"nickname":320,"weight_class":302,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":321,"country":322,"country_zh":323,"country_code":324,"is_chinese":13,"status":56,"ufc_profile_status":325,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":60,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":327,"target":329},3827,"tallison-teixeira","Tallison Teixeira","塔利森·特谢拉","Xicao","9-2-0","Brazil","巴西","BR",{"value":56,"raw":58,"observed_at":326,"fresh":8},"2026-10-22T05:13:53.052971Z",{"url":328,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":319,"alt_en":318},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002F82\u002F824a0d605863994e6f6003b04bc9f8cc7f147e9b0666af5d7110db165c7c6a87.jpg",{"kind":63,"ref":317,"fight_id":7},"13200",{"id":332,"model_name":80,"model_icon_url":81,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":157,"fighter_b_win_pct":156,"confidence":167,"analysis_zh":333,"analysis_en":334,"data_at":335,"prompt_version":89,"method_dist":336,"version":89,"sample_size":7,"uncertainty":7},407,"特谢拉年龄更轻、臂展更长，已提供的击打数据优势明显：有效击打命中率和每分钟命中量更高，击倒率也更突出，具备较强的站立终结威胁。加济耶夫经验与职业胜场更多，防摔率及降服威胁是优势，但近期也有多次KO失利。判断把握有限：特谢拉UFC样本仅4场，双方防摔\u002F抱摔成功率数据不全，排名与后台技能评分均缺失，且重量级终结波动较大。","Teixeira is younger, has the longer reach, and leads the available striking measures in landed volume, accuracy, and knockdown rate, giving him a strong stand-up finishing threat. Gaziev has more experience and career wins, with a clear recorded takedown-defense rate and greater submission threat, but has also suffered multiple recent KO losses. Confidence is limited: Teixeira has only four listed UFC bouts, takedown accuracy is unavailable for both and Teixeira's takedown defense is missing, while rankings and manual skill scores are absent. Heavyweight outcomes are volatile.","2026-10-08T11:37:53.964074Z",{},[338,339,347],{"id":332,"model_name":80,"model_icon_url":81,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":157,"fighter_b_win_pct":156,"confidence":167,"analysis_zh":333,"analysis_en":334,"data_at":335,"prompt_version":89},{"id":340,"model_name":95,"model_icon_url":96,"predicted_winner":155,"fighter_a_win_pct":341,"fighter_b_win_pct":342,"confidence":343,"analysis_zh":344,"analysis_en":345,"data_at":346,"prompt_version":89},406,53,47,0.52,"这是一场接近五五开的重量级对决，加济耶夫略占优势。他职业战绩15-3，比赛经验更多，最近一战1回合击倒恩泽丘库，止住了两连败。他的击倒威胁为0.77次\u002F15分钟，同级别百分位85.3，防摔率83%。特谢拉更年轻（26岁对36岁），臂展长约11厘米，打击量4.85次\u002F分钟、命中率62.8%，击倒威胁1.6次\u002F15分钟，均优于对手，场均抱摔2.4次也更多。但他的样本仅145次打击尝试，可靠性有限。两场UFC失利都是开场半分钟左右被重拳击倒（对路易斯、帕夫洛维奇），打击防守率只有41%。加济耶夫抗击打同样有疑问，UFC三负全是KO\u002FTKO，吸收打击4.86次\u002F分钟，但败局多出现在比赛中后段，或对手实力更强。比赛大概率早段分出胜负，谁先命中重拳谁赢。另外，双方均无排名和技能评分，特谢拉缺少防摔数据，因此把握偏低。","A near coin-flip heavyweight fight with a slight edge to Gaziev. He is 15-3 with more experience, and his last fight was a first-round KO of Nzechukwu that snapped a two-fight skid. His knockdown threat is 0.77 per 15 minutes (85.3 division percentile), and his takedown defense is 83%. Teixeira is younger (26 vs 36), has about 11 cm more reach, and posts better rates: 4.85 strikes landed per minute, 62.8% accuracy, 1.6 knockdowns per 15, plus 2.4 takedowns per 15. However, his sample is small (145 attempts). Both of his UFC losses were knockouts inside about 35-40 seconds (Lewis, Pavlovich), and his striking defense is only 41%. Gaziev's durability is also a concern: all three of his UFC losses are KO\u002FTKOs and he absorbs 4.86 strikes per minute. His losses tended to come later in fights or against stronger opposition. An early finish is likely, decided by who lands heavy shots first. Confidence is low because neither fighter has a ranking or skill scores, and Teixeira's takedown defense data is missing.","2026-10-08T11:37:34.677440Z",{"id":348,"model_name":105,"model_icon_url":106,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":97,"fighter_b_win_pct":98,"confidence":99,"analysis_zh":349,"analysis_en":350,"data_at":351,"prompt_version":89},255,"特谢拉在身高、臂展、年龄和打击输出上占优：SLpM 4.85对2.9，命中率62.8%对45.9%，击倒威胁1.6对0.77次\u002F15分钟，雷达有效打击量\u002F命中率\u002F击倒威胁均更高。加济耶夫的优势在经验、摔跤防守（83%）和降服威胁（0.26次\u002F15分钟），可能通过缠斗\u002F降服制造冷门。两人近期均有被KO记录，但特谢拉仅负于帕夫洛维奇、刘易斯等重炮，加济耶夫近期被佩里契奇KO较伤。特谢拉缺防摔率与抱摔成功率，加济耶夫缺抱摔成功率，数据不完整，故仅给中等偏低把握。判定特谢拉以判定或KO胜。","Teixeira has height\u002Freach\u002Fage edges (200.7cm\u002F210.8cm\u002F26 vs 193cm\u002F199.4cm\u002F36) and better striking: SLpM 4.85 vs 2.9, accuracy 62.8% vs 45.9%, KD\u002F15 1.6 vs 0.77; radar volume\u002Faccuracy\u002FKD threat all higher. Gaziev's path is grappling: 83% TD defense, 0.26 sub\u002F15, more UFC experience. Both have KO losses, but Teixeira lost to elite power (Pavlovich, Lewis), while Gaziev was KO'd by Pericic. Missing TD accuracy for both, Teixeira's TD defense, and rankings lower confidence. Pick Teixeira by decision\u002FKO.","2026-10-08T11:37:03.125821Z",{"fighter_a":46,"fighter_b":46,"total":46,"fighter_a_pct":46,"fighter_b_pct":46},{"pickable":13,"locked_reason":115,"odds_updated_at":7,"source":116},{"id":355,"bout_order":356,"weight_class":357,"weight_class_zh":358,"is_main_event":13,"is_title_fight":13,"fighter_a":359,"fighter_b":374,"fighter_a_name":362,"fighter_b_name":377,"result":75,"bout_status":76,"official_fight_id":389,"result_source":7,"result_updated_at":7,"method":7,"method_zh":7,"end_round":7,"end_time":7,"odds_a":7,"odds_b":7,"favor_a_pct":7,"favor_b_pct":7,"market_odds":7,"prediction":390,"predictions":399,"pick_distribution":414,"my_pick":7,"my_pick_detail":7,"prediction_market":415},62774,5,"Welterweight","次中量级",{"id":360,"slug":361,"name_en":362,"name_zh":363,"nickname":364,"weight_class":357,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":365,"country":366,"country_zh":367,"country_code":368,"is_chinese":13,"status":56,"ufc_profile_status":369,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":60,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":371,"target":373},2387,"jake-matthews","Jake Matthews","杰克·马修斯","The Celtic Kid","23-8-0","Australia","澳大利亚","AU",{"value":56,"raw":58,"observed_at":370,"fresh":8},"2026-10-22T05:13:56.068135Z",{"url":372,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":363,"alt_en":362},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002Ff8\u002Ff8294e898539e4119f3a13a9a2301a2ee885b6a0d1012b8e16a5c8bc69704e8b.jpg",{"kind":63,"ref":361,"fight_id":7},{"id":375,"slug":376,"name_en":377,"name_zh":378,"nickname":379,"weight_class":357,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":380,"country":381,"country_zh":382,"country_code":383,"is_chinese":13,"status":56,"ufc_profile_status":384,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":60,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":386,"target":388},4305,"tahir-abdullayev","Tahir Abdullayev","塔希尔·阿卜杜拉耶夫","Tank","20-3-0","Azerbaijan","阿塞拜疆","AZ",{"value":56,"raw":58,"observed_at":385,"fresh":8},"2026-10-22T05:03:52.582324Z",{"url":387,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":378,"alt_en":377},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002F84\u002F845c8eb02ba2b09305f99cc855ae0b2f7fe9244279517024f41080517e0351f3.jpg",{"kind":63,"ref":376,"fight_id":7},"13193",{"id":391,"model_name":80,"model_icon_url":81,"predicted_winner":155,"fighter_a_win_pct":392,"fighter_b_win_pct":393,"confidence":394,"analysis_zh":395,"analysis_en":396,"data_at":397,"prompt_version":89,"method_dist":398,"version":89,"sample_size":7,"uncertainty":7},409,65,35,0.63,"马修斯的优势在于更充分的UFC样本：近8场5胜3负，有效击打量和防守数据较好，并兼具摔跤与降服威胁。阿卜杜拉耶夫职业战绩和终结能力突出，且较年轻，但目前仅有1场所列UFC赛果；击打、摔跤累计数据有限，抱摔成功率、站姿和臂展缺失，评估不确定性较高。综合经验与可验证数据，倾向马修斯，但把握有限。","Matthews has the more substantial UFC sample: 5-3 across his latest eight listed bouts, with stronger reported striking volume and defense, plus meaningful takedown and submission threat. Abdullayev has an excellent career record and substantial finishing ability, and is younger, but only one UFC result is listed; his cumulative striking and wrestling data are limited, while takedown accuracy, stance, and reach are unavailable. The evidence favors Matthews, with uncertainty due to Abdullayev's sparse UFC data.","2026-10-08T11:38:47.577514Z",{},[400,401,408],{"id":391,"model_name":80,"model_icon_url":81,"predicted_winner":155,"fighter_a_win_pct":392,"fighter_b_win_pct":393,"confidence":394,"analysis_zh":395,"analysis_en":396,"data_at":397,"prompt_version":89},{"id":402,"model_name":95,"model_icon_url":96,"predicted_winner":155,"fighter_a_win_pct":403,"fighter_b_win_pct":404,"confidence":226,"analysis_zh":405,"analysis_en":406,"data_at":407,"prompt_version":89},408,60,40,"马修斯是UFC老将，生涯23-8，近8场UFC 5胜3负，最近一场击败Carlston Harris。他的累计数据样本大（有效打击落点925次）：有效打击3.36\u002F分钟，吸收仅2.58\u002F分钟，打击防守61%（级别分位83.5），降服威胁0.71\u002F15分钟，攻防均衡，地面和降服能力突出（8次降服胜）。阿卜杜拉耶夫生涯20-3，终结率高（11 KO、7降服、10次首回合终结），UFC首秀第三回合TKO击败Nascimento。但他UFC样本仅1场、87次打击尝试、6次抱摔尝试，防摔100%和抱摔量等数据参考价值有限；打击防守51%偏低，臂展、站架和抱摔成功率缺失，雷达图也不完整。综合来看，马修斯凭借经验、防守和数据可靠性占优；但对手年轻、终结力强，且存在较大未知因素，因此判断把握中等偏低。","Matthews is a seasoned UFC veteran at 23-8, going 5-3 in his last eight UFC fights, most recently beating Carlston Harris. His stats rest on a large sample (925 significant strikes landed): 3.36 landed vs 2.58 absorbed per minute, 61% striking defense (83.5 division percentile), and 0.71 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He is balanced, with real grappling and submission threat (8 submission wins). Abdullayev is 20-3 with heavy finishing power (11 KOs, 7 submissions, 10 first-round finishes) and won his UFC debut by third-round TKO over Nascimento. However, his UFC sample is just one fight, 87 strike attempts and 6 takedown attempts, so his 100% takedown defense and takedown volume carry little weight. His 51% striking defense is weak, and his reach, stance and takedown accuracy are missing, leaving his radar incomplete. Matthews' experience, defense and more reliable data make him the pick. The opponent's youth, finishing ability and many unknowns keep confidence modest.","2026-10-08T11:38:26.612676Z",{"id":409,"model_name":105,"model_icon_url":106,"predicted_winner":155,"fighter_a_win_pct":403,"fighter_b_win_pct":404,"confidence":410,"analysis_zh":411,"analysis_en":412,"data_at":413,"prompt_version":89},248,0.58,"马修斯拥有完整8场UFC样本与八维雷达：有效打击量3.36、命中率44.5%、防守率61.0%，均优于阿卜杜拉耶夫的2.56、42.5%、51.0%；降服威胁0.71\u002F15与击倒威胁0.33\u002F15也高于对手的0.0。阿卜杜拉耶夫生涯20-3、11KO\u002F7降服、10次首回合终结，抱摔量2.07\u002F15且防摔100%，但UFC仅1场，抱摔成功率缺失、雷达不完整、打击防守偏弱，数据可靠性低。马修斯防摔67%可限制其抱摔，站立端更可能累积优势，并有机会用降服终结。阿卜杜拉耶夫的重拳和首回合终结能力是最大变数，故把握中等。预测马修斯判定或后段终结胜。","Matthews has a full 8-fight UFC sample and complete radar: 3.36 SLpM, 44.5% accuracy, 61.0% striking defense, all better than Abdullayev's 2.56, 42.5%, 51.0%; submission threat 0.71\u002F15 and knockdown threat 0.33\u002F15 also exceed 0.0. Abdullayev is 20-3 with 11 KO\u002F7 sub and 10 first-round finishes, plus 2.07 takedowns\u002F15 and 100% TDD, but only one UFC fight, missing takedown accuracy, partial radar, and weaker striking defense make his data unreliable. Matthews' 67% TDD can limit grappling, while his volume and defense should win standup and create submission chances. Abdullayev's power and first-round finishing ability are the main risk, so confidence is moderate. Pick Matthews by decision or late finish.","2026-10-08T11:38:02.093741Z",{"fighter_a":46,"fighter_b":46,"total":46,"fighter_a_pct":46,"fighter_b_pct":46},{"pickable":13,"locked_reason":115,"odds_updated_at":7,"source":116},{"id":417,"bout_order":418,"weight_class":419,"weight_class_zh":420,"is_main_event":13,"is_title_fight":13,"fighter_a":421,"fighter_b":436,"fighter_a_name":424,"fighter_b_name":439,"result":75,"bout_status":76,"official_fight_id":447,"result_source":7,"result_updated_at":7,"method":7,"method_zh":7,"end_round":7,"end_time":7,"odds_a":7,"odds_b":7,"favor_a_pct":7,"favor_b_pct":7,"market_odds":7,"prediction":448,"predictions":454,"pick_distribution":466,"my_pick":7,"my_pick_detail":7,"prediction_market":467},62775,6,"Bantamweight","雏量级",{"id":422,"slug":423,"name_en":424,"name_zh":425,"nickname":426,"weight_class":419,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":427,"country":428,"country_zh":429,"country_code":430,"is_chinese":13,"status":56,"ufc_profile_status":431,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":60,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":433,"target":435},3876,"aleksandre-topuria","Aleksandre Topuria","亚历山大·托普里亚","El Conquistador","7-1-0","Germany","德国","DE",{"value":56,"raw":58,"observed_at":432,"fresh":8},"2026-10-22T05:10:16.118954Z",{"url":434,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":425,"alt_en":424},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002F42\u002F4295e470faa440e3de4232c9d47f83cfccf9d4e827b0ee84ce39a8dd0d5ded25.jpg",{"kind":63,"ref":423,"fight_id":7},{"id":437,"slug":438,"name_en":439,"name_zh":7,"nickname":440,"weight_class":419,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":441,"country":129,"country_zh":130,"country_code":131,"is_chinese":13,"status":56,"ufc_profile_status":442,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":60,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":444,"target":446},4503,"santiago-luna","Santiago Luna","BorderBoy","8-1-0",{"value":56,"raw":58,"observed_at":443,"fresh":8},"2026-10-22T05:12:16.330292Z",{"url":445,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":7,"alt_en":439},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002F2c\u002F2c634fe71fb98917b8bc0aac016eceb8ae29f1a9837ec2fb2ff5d75169d3050d.jpg",{"kind":63,"ref":438,"fight_id":7},"13194",{"id":449,"model_name":80,"model_icon_url":81,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":97,"fighter_b_win_pct":98,"confidence":85,"analysis_zh":450,"analysis_en":451,"data_at":452,"prompt_version":89,"method_dist":453,"version":89,"sample_size":7,"uncertainty":7},411,"卢纳的有效击打量（4.74\u002F分钟）、击倒率和降服威胁更突出，臂展也更长；职业战绩略优，但近期三场为2胜1负，最近一场遭降服，且防摔率仅57%，存在被托普里亚利用的风险。托普里亚近期两战全胜，打击命中与防守、防摔数据亮眼，也有终结能力。考虑到他的UFC样本和近期记录较少、卢纳抱摔成功率缺失且双方均无官方排名，判断把握有限，略倾向卢纳。","Luna leads in significant-strike volume (4.74\u002Fmin), knockdown rate and submission threat, and has the longer reach. His career record is slightly better, though he is 2-1 in the listed recent UFC bouts and most recently lost by submission; his 57% takedown defense is a potential vulnerability. Topuria is 2-0 in the listed recent bouts and has strong striking accuracy, defense and takedown defense, with finishing ability of his own. Topuria’s UFC sample is smaller, Luna’s takedown accuracy is unavailable, and neither has a listed official ranking, so confidence is limited; slight lean to Luna.","2026-10-08T11:39:18.685453Z",{},[455,456,461],{"id":449,"model_name":80,"model_icon_url":81,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":97,"fighter_b_win_pct":98,"confidence":85,"analysis_zh":450,"analysis_en":451,"data_at":452,"prompt_version":89},{"id":457,"model_name":95,"model_icon_url":96,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":404,"fighter_b_win_pct":403,"confidence":99,"analysis_zh":458,"analysis_en":459,"data_at":460,"prompt_version":89},410,"Luna（B）22岁，臂展188cm，比Topuria（A）的172.7cm长约15cm。B的有效打击输出为4.74次\u002F分钟，A为2.93次\u002F分钟；B的击倒威胁为0.92次\u002F15分钟，降服威胁同为0.92次\u002F15分钟，有效打击命中率与打击防守率均与A接近。B的8场胜利中7场为终结，终结能力更突出。A的打击防守率69%，防摔率100%，UFC战绩2战全胜，但两场均为判定胜，且UFC内击倒与降服数据均为0，主动杀伤偏弱。B的防摔率57%是明显短板，A可以尝试抱摔，但A的抱摔成功率仅11.1%（9次尝试成功1次），难以稳定利用这一短板。B最近一场在第三回合被Bryce Mitchell降服，说明其地面防守存在风险。另外，双方UFC样本都很小，B缺少抱摔成功率数据，双方均无官方排名与技能评分，因此整体把握有限。综合判断B小幅占优。","Luna (B), age 22, has a 188cm reach, about 15cm longer than Topuria's (A) 172.7cm. B lands 4.74 significant strikes per minute versus A's 2.93. B also posts 0.92 knockdowns and 0.92 submission attempts per 15 minutes, while his striking accuracy and defense are close to A's. Seven of B's eight wins are finishes. A shows 69% striking defense and 100% takedown defense and is 2-0 in the UFC, but both wins were decisions with no UFC knockdowns or submission attempts. B's 57% takedown defense is a clear weakness, yet A's takedown accuracy is only 11.1% (1 of 9), so he is unlikely to exploit it consistently. B's most recent fight was a round-three submission loss to Bryce Mitchell, which points to grappling vulnerability. Both UFC samples are small, B's takedown accuracy is missing, and neither fighter has a ranking or skill scores, so confidence is limited. B holds a modest edge.","2026-10-08T11:39:03.595030Z",{"id":462,"model_name":105,"model_icon_url":106,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":173,"fighter_b_win_pct":174,"confidence":215,"analysis_zh":463,"analysis_en":464,"data_at":465,"prompt_version":89},249,"依据白名单数据，Luna 在有效打击量（4.74 vs 2.93\u002F分钟）、击倒威胁（0.92 vs 0\u002F15分钟）、降服威胁（0.92 vs 0\u002F15分钟）、抱摔量（2.3 vs 1.5\u002F15分钟）以及身高、臂展上占优，且终结率更高。Topuria 的打击精度、打击防守和防摔率更好，但输出偏低，抱摔成功率仅11.1%，难以稳定利用 Luna 防摔率57%的弱点。Luna 近期被 Bryce Mitchell 降服，说明其地面防守有风险，Topuria 也有降服胜绩；不过 UFC 样本中 Topuria 降服威胁为0，主要靠判定。综合来看 Luna 更可能以打击量、击倒或地面降服取胜。Luna 缺少抱摔成功率，且双方无官方排名，故把握中等。","Based on the provided facts, Luna has clear advantages in significant strike volume (4.74 vs 2.93\u002Fmin), knockdown threat (0.92 vs 0\u002F15 min), submission threat (0.92 vs 0\u002F15 min), takedown volume (2.3 vs 1.5\u002F15 min), height and reach, with a higher finish rate. Topuria is more accurate, has better striking defense and 100% takedown defense, but his low output and 11.1% takedown accuracy limit his ability to exploit Luna's 57% takedown defense. Luna's recent submission loss to Bryce Mitchell shows ground risk, and Topuria owns submission wins; however, Topuria's UFC submission threat is 0 and his recent UFC wins are decisions. Luna is more likely to win by volume, knockdown or submission. Missing Luna takedown accuracy and no official rankings reduce confidence.","2026-10-08T11:38:55.157623Z",{"fighter_a":46,"fighter_b":46,"total":46,"fighter_a_pct":46,"fighter_b_pct":46},{"pickable":13,"locked_reason":115,"odds_updated_at":7,"source":116},{"id":469,"bout_order":470,"weight_class":471,"weight_class_zh":472,"is_main_event":13,"is_title_fight":13,"fighter_a":473,"fighter_b":488,"fighter_a_name":476,"fighter_b_name":491,"result":75,"bout_status":76,"official_fight_id":503,"result_source":7,"result_updated_at":7,"method":7,"method_zh":7,"end_round":7,"end_time":7,"odds_a":7,"odds_b":7,"favor_a_pct":7,"favor_b_pct":7,"market_odds":7,"prediction":504,"predictions":510,"pick_distribution":522,"my_pick":7,"my_pick_detail":7,"prediction_market":523},62776,7,"Flyweight","蝇量级",{"id":474,"slug":475,"name_en":476,"name_zh":477,"nickname":478,"weight_class":471,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":479,"country":480,"country_zh":481,"country_code":482,"is_chinese":13,"status":56,"ufc_profile_status":483,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":60,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":485,"target":487},100,"asu-almabayev","Asu Almabayev","阿苏·阿马巴耶夫","Zulfikar","24-3-0","Kazakhstan","哈萨克斯坦","KZ",{"value":56,"raw":58,"observed_at":484,"fresh":8},"2026-10-22T05:13:25.658434Z",{"url":486,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":477,"alt_en":476},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002Fc9\u002Fc905a9c22a8df48b9984bf3351cbad116ecbcf7b6a59d0e5911be2a47008b9ef.jpg",{"kind":63,"ref":475,"fight_id":7},{"id":489,"slug":490,"name_en":491,"name_zh":492,"nickname":493,"weight_class":471,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":494,"country":495,"country_zh":496,"country_code":497,"is_chinese":13,"status":56,"ufc_profile_status":498,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":60,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":500,"target":502},1665,"kyoji-horiguchi","Kyoji Horiguchi","堀口恭司","Karate Kid","36-6-0","Japan","日本","JP",{"value":56,"raw":58,"observed_at":499,"fresh":8},"2026-10-22T05:10:11.909436Z",{"url":501,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":492,"alt_en":491},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002F54\u002F549fa1675a1de1e266c1db1f7521fbcaa6e0f568e612c6b15b26927ccbbbab8e.jpg",{"kind":63,"ref":490,"fight_id":7},"13195",{"id":505,"model_name":80,"model_icon_url":81,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":225,"fighter_b_win_pct":224,"confidence":109,"analysis_zh":506,"analysis_en":507,"data_at":508,"prompt_version":89,"method_dist":509,"version":89,"sample_size":7,"uncertainty":7},413,"堀口恭司略占优：生涯战绩更佳、官方排名第5高于阿马巴耶夫第7；有效击打量（3.64对2.28次\u002F分钟）、打击防守率（64%对54%）及击倒威胁数据也更突出，且臂展多约10厘米。阿马巴耶夫近8场7胜1负，并有强降服威胁，但抱摔成功率仅2.8%，累计72次尝试仅2次成功。阿马巴耶夫的近期状态和地面威胁使比赛仍有变数。缺少手动技能评分及具体打击目标分布，降低把握。","Horiguchi has a modest edge: the stronger career record and #5 ranking, higher significant-strike volume (3.64 vs 2.28\u002Fmin), better striking defense (64% vs 54%), greater knockdown threat, and roughly 10 cm more reach. Almabayev's recent 7-1 UFC run and submission threat are meaningful, but his listed takedown accuracy is only 2.8% (2 of 72 attempts). His grappling remains a real path to victory. Manual skill scores and detailed strike-target breakdowns are unavailable, limiting confidence.","2026-10-08T11:40:06.178100Z",{},[511,512,517],{"id":505,"model_name":80,"model_icon_url":81,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":225,"fighter_b_win_pct":224,"confidence":109,"analysis_zh":506,"analysis_en":507,"data_at":508,"prompt_version":89},{"id":513,"model_name":95,"model_icon_url":96,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":97,"fighter_b_win_pct":98,"confidence":99,"analysis_zh":514,"analysis_en":515,"data_at":516,"prompt_version":89},412,"堀口恭司（排名第5）在站立端优势明显。他的有效打击为3.64次\u002F分钟，阿马巴耶夫为2.28次\u002F分钟。打击防守率64%对54%，击倒威胁0.59对0.14，臂展也长约10厘米。他的抱摔成功率35.7%，防摔率61%。阿马巴耶夫（排名第7）近8场7胜1负，降服威胁很高（1.44次\u002F15分钟），生涯11场降服胜，地面压制是他的主要胜机。但他的抱摔数据为72次尝试仅成功2次，成功率2.8%，明显异常，可信度存疑。他的防摔率44%也偏低。两人都曾被卡佩TKO。堀口35岁，大于对手的32岁，且近期刚遭KO负。综合来看，堀口凭借距离控制和打击质量略占上风。由于抱摔数据异常、且缺少后台技能评分，判断把握有所降低。","Horiguchi (#5) holds a clear striking edge. He lands 3.64 significant strikes per minute versus Almabayev's 2.28. His striking defense is 64% vs 54%, his knockdown rate is 0.59 vs 0.14, and he has roughly a 10cm reach advantage. He also shows 35.7% takedown accuracy and 61% takedown defense. Almabayev (#7) is 7-1 over his last eight and carries an elite submission threat (1.44 per 15 min, 11 career submission wins), so grappling is his main path to victory. However, his takedown data reads 2 of 72 landed (2.8%), which is anomalous and of questionable reliability. His 44% takedown defense is also weak. Both fighters were TKO'd by Kape. Horiguchi is older (35 vs 32) and coming off a recent KO loss. On balance, Horiguchi's range control and striking quality give him a slight edge. Confidence is reduced because of the data anomaly and the missing manual skill scores.","2026-10-08T11:39:49.603542Z",{"id":518,"model_name":105,"model_icon_url":106,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":97,"fighter_b_win_pct":98,"confidence":215,"analysis_zh":519,"analysis_en":520,"data_at":521,"prompt_version":89},250,"综合白名单数据，堀口恭司在有效打击量(3.64\u002F分钟)、打击防守(64%)、击倒威胁(0.59\u002F15分钟)和臂展(+10.2cm)上占优，官方排名第5也略高于阿马巴耶夫第7。阿马巴耶夫的优势在抱摔量(4.74\u002F15分钟)与降服威胁(1.44\u002F15分钟)，但抱摔成功率仅2.8%，面对堀口61%防摔可能难以持续进入地面；其打击量偏低，若无法摔倒，站立回合易被堀口控制。阿马巴耶夫更年轻且近8场UFC 7胜1负，有爆冷降服路径，但堀口防摔与打击防守更稳。双方均曾被卡佩KO，存在终结变数。manual_skill_scores缺失，把握中等。","Using only provided facts, Horiguchi has edges in significant strike volume (3.64\u002Fmin), striking defense (64%), knockdown threat (0.59\u002F15 min), reach (+10.2 cm), and official rank (5 vs 7). Almabayev's path is grappling: high takedown volume (4.74\u002F15 min) and submission threat (1.44\u002F15 min), but his 2.8% takedown accuracy against Horiguchi's 61% takedown defense makes sustained top control uncertain. Almabayev is younger and 7-1 in recent UFC sample, with a real submission route, but Horiguchi's striking defense and volume should win standup rounds. Both were recently KO'd by Kape, adding finish variance. Manual skill scores missing, so confidence moderate.","2026-10-08T11:39:26.671173Z",{"fighter_a":46,"fighter_b":46,"total":46,"fighter_a_pct":46,"fighter_b_pct":46},{"pickable":13,"locked_reason":115,"odds_updated_at":7,"source":116},{"id":525,"bout_order":526,"weight_class":471,"weight_class_zh":472,"is_main_event":13,"is_title_fight":13,"fighter_a":527,"fighter_b":541,"fighter_a_name":529,"fighter_b_name":544,"result":75,"bout_status":76,"official_fight_id":553,"result_source":7,"result_updated_at":7,"method":7,"method_zh":7,"end_round":7,"end_time":7,"odds_a":7,"odds_b":7,"favor_a_pct":7,"favor_b_pct":7,"market_odds":7,"prediction":554,"predictions":561,"pick_distribution":574,"my_pick":7,"my_pick_detail":7,"prediction_market":575},62777,8,{"id":224,"slug":528,"name_en":529,"name_zh":530,"nickname":531,"weight_class":471,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":532,"country":533,"country_zh":534,"country_code":535,"is_chinese":13,"status":56,"ufc_profile_status":536,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":60,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":538,"target":540},"amir-albazi","Amir Albazi","阿米尔·阿尔巴齐","The Prince","17-3-0","Iraq","伊拉克","IQ",{"value":56,"raw":58,"observed_at":537,"fresh":8},"2026-10-22T05:09:04.801640Z",{"url":539,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":530,"alt_en":529},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002Fe0\u002Fe01c112f1e1b5b2168c99e25337d0399b590774d41b235cdff4cb5c499b322a6.jpg",{"kind":63,"ref":528,"fight_id":7},{"id":542,"slug":543,"name_en":544,"name_zh":545,"nickname":546,"weight_class":471,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":547,"country":322,"country_zh":323,"country_code":324,"is_chinese":13,"status":56,"ufc_profile_status":548,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":60,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":550,"target":552},769,"alessandro-costa","Alessandro Costa","亚历山德罗·科斯塔","Nono","17-5-0",{"value":56,"raw":58,"observed_at":549,"fresh":8},"2026-10-22T05:12:22.394579Z",{"url":551,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":545,"alt_en":544},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002F33\u002F331c9ce0168b4204ecd03570f8317ff85d2b902d0aaa444c169fd1aabbe2d4f0.jpg",{"kind":63,"ref":543,"fight_id":7},"13196",{"id":555,"model_name":80,"model_icon_url":81,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":173,"fighter_b_win_pct":174,"confidence":556,"analysis_zh":557,"analysis_en":558,"data_at":559,"prompt_version":89,"method_dist":560,"version":89,"sample_size":7,"uncertainty":7},415,0.61,"科斯塔的有效打击量、命中率和击倒威胁明显占优，防摔率也更高；近期资料显示他连胜三场。阿尔巴齐职业胜场相同且排名第9，降服战绩更强，但近期两场失利，抱摔成功率仅9.4%，削弱了其主要优势。科斯塔缺官方排名且抱摔成功数据缺失，故判断保留不确定性。","Costa leads in striking volume, accuracy and knockdown threat, has stronger takedown defense, and his listed recent results show three straight wins. Albazi has the same career wins, a #9 ranking and more submission wins, but is coming off two losses and has only 9.4% takedown accuracy. Costa's ranking and takedown-success data are unavailable, so uncertainty remains.","2026-10-08T11:41:08.799633Z",{},[562,563,568],{"id":555,"model_name":80,"model_icon_url":81,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":173,"fighter_b_win_pct":174,"confidence":556,"analysis_zh":557,"analysis_en":558,"data_at":559,"prompt_version":89},{"id":564,"model_name":95,"model_icon_url":96,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":157,"fighter_b_win_pct":156,"confidence":343,"analysis_zh":565,"analysis_en":566,"data_at":567,"prompt_version":89},414,"这是一场重赛。2022年阿尔巴齐第三回合TKO击败科斯塔，且他的对手层次更高（Moreno、Horiguchi、Kara-France），并有官方第9排名。但阿尔巴齐目前两连败，比赛间隔较长。他的打击数据偏弱：每分钟命中2.47次，命中率33.8%，每分钟吸收3.88次。抱摔成功率仅9.4%（32次尝试中成功3次），而科斯塔防摔率高达87%，这会削弱阿尔巴齐的降服路线（9胜来自降服）。科斯塔正处于三连胜，打击量3.77次\u002F分钟，命中率46.5%，击倒威胁位列分级第91百分位，终结能力突出。不过他近期对手层次较低，并在2025年被KO过一次。另外他缺少抱摔成功率数据，雷达图不完整。综合来看科斯塔略占优，但交手记录和对手质量差异使把握有限。","This is a rematch: Albazi stopped Costa by R3 TKO in 2022. Albazi is ranked #9 and has faced tougher opposition (Moreno, Horiguchi, Kara-France). However, he is on a two-fight losing skid with long layoffs. His striking metrics are weak: 2.47 SLpM at 33.8% accuracy, absorbing 3.88 per minute. His takedown accuracy is only 9.4% (3 of 32), which runs into Costa's 87% takedown defense and blunts Albazi's submission path (9 of his wins). Costa is on a three-fight win streak with 3.77 SLpM at 46.5% accuracy and a knockdown threat in the division's 91st percentile. On the other hand, his recent opponents were lower-tier, he was KO'd in 2025, and his takedown accuracy data is missing, so his radar chart is incomplete. Slight edge to Costa, with low confidence given the head-to-head result and the gap in opposition quality.","2026-10-08T11:40:41.820206Z",{"id":569,"model_name":105,"model_icon_url":106,"predicted_winner":82,"fighter_a_win_pct":404,"fighter_b_win_pct":403,"confidence":570,"analysis_zh":571,"analysis_en":572,"data_at":573,"prompt_version":89},251,0.6,"依据白名单数据独立研判。阿尔巴齐排名第9，生涯17-3，9次降服，防打击率59.0%尚可，但有效打击量2.47\u002F分钟、命中率33.8%偏低，且抱摔成功率仅9.4%，最近两场UFC均告负。科斯塔17-5，2026年处于三连胜且均为终结；其有效打击量3.77\u002F分钟、命中率46.5%、击倒威胁91.1百分位、防摔率87.0%，在站立端和防抱摔上更占优。阿尔巴齐的胜机在于降服威胁、打击防守和2022年曾KO科斯塔，但科斯塔近期更活跃，且高防摔率可能抵消阿尔巴齐的低成功率抱摔。科斯塔缺少抱摔成功率数据，故把握度中等。","Independent read from the provided facts. Albazi is ranked No.9 with a 17-3 record and 9 submissions, but his striking volume (2.47\u002Fmin), accuracy (33.8%), and takedown accuracy (9.4%) are low, and he enters on two UFC losses. Costa is 17-5 and on a three-fight 2026 win streak, all finishes. Costa leads in significant strikes (3.77\u002Fmin), accuracy (46.5%), knockdown threat (91.1 percentile), and takedown defense (87.0%), which should help him keep the fight standing and outwork Albazi. Albazi’s paths are submission threat, better striking defense, and his 2022 KO of Costa, but that result is old. Costa’s missing takedown-accuracy data lowers confidence to moderate.","2026-10-08T11:40:14.321986Z",{"fighter_a":46,"fighter_b":46,"total":46,"fighter_a_pct":46,"fighter_b_pct":46},{"pickable":13,"locked_reason":115,"odds_updated_at":7,"source":116}]